26 October 2015

How the "South African Spring" will be fought



By Mike Smith

27th of October 2015

Seven years ago on the 21st of November 2008, I wrote an article for SA Sucks asking the question, How will World War IV be fought?

In that article I mentioned how battlefields and warfare changed throughout history, driven by the search for “amplifiers” or “force multipliers”.

Physically, we went from swinging clubs and chucking spears to muskets, to rifles, to cannons, to rockets to chemical and nuclear weapons.

I also mentioned the symbiosis between soldiers and engineers who develop these force multipliers. The First World War was basically a war of chemists, the Second World War was a war of Physicists and the Third World War (Cold War) was a war of information researchers which saw the development of spy gadgets and information gathering technology.

None of it is gone. We still have chemical weapons, rockets, spy technology, etc, but we have moved into a different realm since the birth of the Internet and the development of “Cyber Warfare”.

I mentioned how the world has changed and warfare has changed.

“The world today is just too sensitive and politically correct. The Fourth World War will be fought by another breed of scientists, Social scientists. It is now the turn of philosophers, psychologists, anthropologists, criminologists, et al, to battle it out. Capturing the geographical high ground has made space for capturing the moral high ground. Cultural awareness and empathy are nowadays deciding factors in war. No longer is technological advantage the Schwerpunkt of conflict. Sweeping maneuvers has made space for the stacking of moral successes.”

“The question to ask is whether we are intellectually, culturally, sociologically and psychologically prepared for such a war.”

I even mentioned how we should train our “soldiers” for such a war.

“Our educational institutions are where the soldiers are trained and armed and where we have to shape and form their minds, arm them with the best and sharpest tools.”

I mentioned seven years ago what we are seeing today…

”The weapons the soldier is armed with is not geared towards wounding or killing the physical, rather the mental. The soldier no longer wears a uniform and firearm, rather an avatar and a keyboard. No more are armies of hundreds of thousands of physical bodies needed, rather a small unit of intellectuals that can wreak havoc on the minds and perceptions of people. No longer are civilians sitting back and soldiers fighting the war, rather soldiers are sitting back as “Peace Keepers” and civilians are fighting the war in cyberspace.”

Back then when I originally posted my article, I took a lot flack from people who refused to acknowledge that soldiering and warfare have changed as technology changed. Most of them were dreaming of some heroic past and a war of attrition like the three ABW’s…The two Anglo Boer Wars and the Angolan Border War. They told me that I was wrong and that I was trying to muster an army of “Keyboard warriors” and that I want to be a “Keyboard De La Rey”.

Then, two years later in December 2010, The “Arab Spring” started and swept through Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen deposing dictators everywhere. Major uprisings in the rest of the Arab world like Algeria, Syria, Bahrain, Morocco, etc. followed.

Were these dictators deposed by armed Tuareg fighters from the glorious times of Lawrence of Arabia? No. They were students with smart phones organizing on Twitter and Facebook and keeping in touch via Skype.

Two and a half months ago after acknowledging that South Africa was developing into a dictatorship and a tyranny of the majority, I kicked off a defiance campaign by asking a question.

How do we want South Africa to be after the ANC is gone?

The article was thought provoking and received 143 comments to date.

I followed it up with a summary of those comments known as Our vision of tomorrow

I then started a series of articles educating people about non violent political defiance and gave them several tools in the form of links to free literature in the right hand column of my blog Exploring the usual options of struggle against a dictatorship

Non-violent political defiance as the only viable option to change in South Africa

So far the campaign has been received mostly positively, but several nay-sayers and detractors from the heroic Boer War and Angolan War brigades have expressed their doubts that large scale civil disobedience and political defiance could ever work in South Africa despite the evidence that it already did during the 60’s,70’s, and 80’s.

They called me a dreamer, a “Walter Mitty” with a pipe dream and God knows what else … According to them, whites and blacks would never stand together against the ANC and the black police would beat up peaceful white demonstrators and support the blacks. They also said that “The rest of the world won’t allow it”…claimed that the USA, Russia, China and even Zimbabwe would invade us. They said that in no time we would have the entire African Union against us with 50 million soldiers…

I told them how the Serbian revolutionary and disciple of Gene Sharp, Srdja Popovic started out his book “Blueprint for Revolution” with this exact theme. Srdja Popovic is the man who trained the Tunisians, the Egyptians the Syrians and the Maldivians for their revolutions. He even trained the MDC for their fight against Mugabe here in South Africa.

Every single group told him the same, “Srdja…We hear what you are saying, but it will never work in our country…”

Then they tried it and it DID work.

The principles of dictatorships, their support structures, how they stay in power and how to pull those structures out from under them to support true democracy are universal. It works in EVERY country.

Then came the “African Spring” in the form of the #FeesMustFall student protests as if someone has read my articles and we saw that the whites and blacks CAN and DID stand together against the ANC just like I suggested. Last Wednesday in Cape Town, we saw how white students were shielding and covering their fellow black students against the
baton blows of the police.

Whites students form human shield to protect black students from South African Police

Where are all these Super Powers that would come and invade us? None of them has interfered, not even stupid Mugabe.

Gene Sharp mentioned this in “From Dictatorship to Democracy”. He said that when the people wage a non-violent, political defiance campaign against a dictatorship, there is very seldom interference from the outside and the dictatorship will fall even with very strong allies.

In fact for the trained eye, it is quite simple to spot that this student defiance campaign in SA is a textbook revolution straight out of the pens of Gene Sharp and Srdja Popovic.

Srdja Popovic in the CANVAS literature says that the students must form the core of the revolution, because they are spirited, tech savvy and have the least to lose. To unite them you must find a common theme that affects them all and they all feel passionate about. Well, what better than the fees?

You also need a common symbol/slogan and idea. Today we see the students all over the country forming cells and uniting around a common idea (FeesMustFall) rather than a single leader.

Srdja Popovic also mentioned how important it is that the students DO NOT align themselves politically. Last week we saw the DA, the ANC and the EFF trying to hi-jack the revolution, but in all cases the politicians were chased away and told to “Voetsek”…Afrikaans for “Fuck-off”.

When they faced the police, the white girls and black girls were put between the male students and the police in riot gear. Immediately the white parents were crying, “Get our children out of there, they are using our children as shields to hide behind…etc”.

Absolute rubbish. It serves mainly two purposes. The police are less likely to club girls, especially white girls, in front of national and international media. Besides cell phones were filming everything. Pictures and films can be uploaded in seconds. But also the girls help to keep discipline by separating the more aggressive male students, who would probably hit back if struck, from the riot clad police.

This is all textbook stuff. These strategies and tactics are well known to trained revolutionaries.

Believe me…These are no random student uprisings. It has been well planned.

The students have behaved fairly well so far. I just have a problem with a few students from Fort Hare who broke discipline and resorted to looting . This is a big “no-no” when it comes to peaceful revolution and a revolution it certainly is. Even the most ardent liberals like Adriaan Basson and Tim du Plessis are acknowledging it.

Adriaan Basson: Is a revolution at hand?

Tim du Plessis: Ask not for whom the bell tolls, Mr Zuma…

As the revolution picks up steam and more people join, we see that it has now developed into the #ANCmustFall

We have also seen how vulnerable the ANC and their goons are. The moment the people start to realize that the ANC can be defeated, they will lose all fear. We have seen this during the protests last week. The students completely lost their fear of the police and were even arrested and put into prison.

Losing the fear of the dictatorship is a crucial point in overthrowing it. The revolution will now escalate exponentially. Another crucial point is the transfer of the allegiance of the intellectuals as we have seen with liberal academics, newspapers and the media turning against the ANC.

The next major point is when the police join the students or simply go home and do nothing. THAT is the precise point at which the ANC will be chased out. They will lose all support and will come crashing down and we shall say, "Why did it take us so long."



41 comments:

  1. Well predicted Mike. It's happening exactly as you've said. Let's just hope and pray it doesn't lose momentum for some reason.
    Cheers mate, have a good one and did you win at Pool on Friday, by the way?

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  2. Anonymous12:30 am

    Mike I want to believe it, really I do. I personally believe that this semi-revolution will just die down and people will go home and nothing further will happen with this #FeesMustFall.

    If however all of these intellectuals and sponsors are serious about deposing the ANC they should do it now. They must organize and unite against this tyranny. How do we do this? How do we facilitate this?

    Another factor to consider is the state of our economy and our infrastructure, this has the potential to blow up like the biggest nuke in history if all the cards globally fall in place.

    The ANC will not go down without a fight, a few bombs here and a few bombs there and bam, we have unstoppable chaos engulfing the entire country.

    So many options, so many scenarios, so little relative time left for the inevitable fall of the terrorists in the ANC and co. Will we survive long enough to see them fall and fade to black? Time will tell...

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  3. You guys might find this interesting?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABrauM7yvco&feature=youtu.be

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  4. Anonymous2:12 am

    The revolution will not be peaceful. The student protests were executed with minimal violence (considering the potential for violence). It was also a multi-culti protest. As the heat goes up the "monopoly white capital" ,"white privilege" card will be played louder as the ANC attempts to shift the blame. This will cause the multi-culti approach to fracture as the whites begin to defend their position. The populist ingrates like the EFF are the first to hop on to the momentum that #FEESMUSTFALL created, this will not remain as "peaceful" as the students however. As the revolution becomes more politicized, and it will, factional fighting will become the order of the day. Technology will play a bigger role among the middle class and populism will play the larger role among the impoverished. This revolution may start off as per Gene Sharp's theory, but will quickly escalate into the violent killing and factional fighting bloodbath that flows through Africa's veins. Add to this malaise the economic and infrastructural end game as well as the drought and failing crops, all bottlenecking just before the most contested municipal election since 94 and the recipe for a violent clash between classes, races and political allegiances is set. War is on our doorstep, that I am absolutely certain of.

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    1. Anonymous11:44 am

      Agree with you mate, onkle maaik has still not put two and two together, no amount of intellectualizing and otporring can change the fact that these porchmonkeys are not actual humans. All the revolutionary ideas he has gathered and analyzed go to hell in a hand-basket when a troop of baboons go on a rampage. I have seen it first hand, seen them kicking a human head around in a game of impromptu football in the dirt. If this thing escalates it will not remain peaceful.

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    2. Lala Land3:51 pm

      I'm afraid Mike has finally lost the plot. He is too blinkered by his "revolution" project to see the trees for the forest. When you have Africans with sub IQ70 in the majority - nearly 40 million - then how do you think this is all going to end? All the ANC has to do at each election is mention the word "apartheid" and the porch monkeys vote for them again. Does Mike honestly think that a few white students and a few black students are going to cause a revolution in SA for the better? I'm still waiting for a sub-Saharan African feel-good example of a revolution that ended well.

      Be careful what you wish for - you may just get the opposite. Once the ANC is 'removed', who do you think will replace them without any viable, organised opposition? Yeah, this is really going to end well.

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    3. @ Lala Land who said: "All the ANC has to do at each election is mention the word "apartheid" and the porch monkeys vote for them again. "

      So why don't you start working at it that the ANC falls, so that they NEVER take part in another election ever again?

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    4. Lala Land12:58 am

      Sure Mike. As soon as I find where the unicorns and fairies live, I'm sure I'll find the blueprint on how to get the ANC out of SA politics and out of taking part in elections. I'll let you know when I find those missing unicorns. #Gullible #Naive #MikeLivingInLalaLand

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    5. Say Lala-land...Is that the most intelligent comment you could come up with? Take your childish sarcasm and shove up your arse mate. If you have nothing intelligent to say, then rather shut your gob before you are mistaken for a fool and prove us right.

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    6. Lala Land3:42 am

      Hey Mike, don't get upset boet. I'm just pointing out your stupidity and naivety with all this 'revolution' kak-praat. I can't wait to see you at the front of that revolution, leading the charge. Or will you be too busy blogging and encouraging the others to go die? You sound like one of those Muslim Imams who get those stupid naive suicide bombers to go blow themselves up for the cause, while they watch from afar.

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    7. @ Lala-Land. I see that Ozzie air got your brain a bit. I would never ask anybody to do anything I am not willing to do myself. In all the years I was an officer, I always led from the front and by example. I am already in the thick of things and will be even more so in the months to come. Watch this space. You will see me directly in the face of the enemy. I waited for this moment for far too long. I have a good few bones to pick with this ANC scum. I am not missing this fight for anything in the world. The only ones watching from afar will be guys like you. Seen your Kind many times. Dime a dozen.

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  5. Anonymous4:40 am

    No Mike, with al due respect but I am afraid you are in for a big eye opener just like Piet Retief.

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    1. Anonymous6:04 am

      I have of course always asked him to show us an example of one of his revolutions that has played out according to recipe here in darkest Africa.
      Please note NORTH Africa is NOT Darkest Africa. North Africa has a history going back to the Romans. In any case the original Egyptians were Caucasians. ( white )
      So far Mr Smith has failed to provide an example.
      Piet Retief - just like the Springboks believed he was special and G D would provide -- instead of taking along a couple of "botter-vaatjies" filled with black powder !
      What say you Mr Smith ?????

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    2. No Anon 4:40 Mike won't be surprised. If you read the blog, he's been preaching preparation and training for ages.

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    3. "So far Mr Smith has failed to provide an example."

      I told you before. Look at South Africa during the 70's and 80's with Steve Biko's Black Consciousness Movement.

      It was not the ANC's bombs that sank Apartheid. The ANC was taken care of by the security forces and by the end of the 80's it was nothing but a fax machine in Dar es Salaam.

      It was the Non violent struggle of Tutu, Boesak, the Voelvry movement, the End conscription campaign, the defiance strikes, the economic, cultural and sports boycotts and sanctions that brought the Apartheid government down. Just like any other dictatorship they eventually dissolved never to be heard of again. All of these techniques are described by Gene Sharp in his 198 methods of non-violent struggle. Don't tell me it won't work. It HAS worked already.

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    4. Don't forget the traitors, that basically sealed the deal. Kind of like a self-fulfilling prophecy, the whites who due to massive media pressure thought the game was turning, didn't want to end up on the wrong side, so betrayed us all, and in so doing fulfilled the perceptions created by the media that things were changing. Crazy when you think about it. That's why you cannot go through life worrying about peoples feelings. You will get nowhere.

      The lion should have no concern for the opinions of sheep...only his appetite...

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    5. Anonymous1:24 am

      WHAT Mr Smith fails to understand and grasp ........
      The whole Apartheid apparatus had NO international legitimacy.
      They COULD NOT even if they wanted to fight against that,
      So
      Wholesale slaughter -- the STALIN type was out of the question.

      In the current scenario the ANC / SACP DOES have international legitimacy
      They CAN go for the STALIN option if they want
      ergo
      There will be NO peaceful revolution in which any WHITE Africans are involved
      Do you get IT now ?

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  6. Anon 2:12 - I tend to agree that war is inevitable because of the illiteracy of our greater unwashed majority. As you said "the factional fighting bloodbath that runs through Africa's veins". That is the nature of the beast. That the whole infrastructure will collapse is also inevitable so one has to be prepared to cope with circumstances and protect one's own and fight for and with other like-minded fellows.

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  7. Willempie6:05 am

    @Anonymous 4.40 - just remember this: After Piet Retief came one Andries Pretorius...

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    1. Anonymous10:37 pm

      I'm counting on that...

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    2. Anonymous1:26 am

      The Death of Piet Retief and his followers was unnecessary
      SOLEY due to his arrogance and ignorance ( just like Malema )

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  8. Anonymous7:28 am

    One thing that needs to be expanded on is a possible power vacuum and/ or the hijacking of the South African Spring by radical party's.

    We have seen how the various Springs have been hijacked by extremist/ terrorist groups like IS, Al Nusra Front, Muslim Brotherhood to name but a few, leaving eternal chaos in their wake. I firmly believe that any revolution should be preceded by a credible candidate to fill the vacuum. I know you touched on this in another post but I think that it needs much more "unpacking".

    Radical elements standing by to rise during the Rein of the Moderates. How are the "wrong" radicals neutralised and how does one assure that the "right" radicals ascend?

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  9. Anonymous8:16 am

    Boere_Ninja

    If you look closely you will find that there is not just one revolution brewing here.

    All those other countries had one revolution to deal with.

    Here there are probably 3-5 revolutions brewing.

    1. The students
    2. The EFF

    3. The revolution of the ANC and its nationalization (same as EFF) - they will have to beat the students/EFF with even better promises to stay in power and those promises come straight out of whitees pockets.

    4. The white revolt in its early stages, make no mistake you will see it rear its head.

    5. Mass revolt - those burning shit, blocking roads, looting.

    Very complicated.

    To add further fuel to the fire there is an increasing tribe vs tribe forming in this country. Just last week Malema warned blacks about being racist towards other black tribes.

    I dont think there is a single country in the world with so many complex issues. They usually have one revolution, maybe two but to have this many....

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    1. Anonymous7:34 pm

      Boere ninja, "and those promises come straight out of the whitee pocket" dan voeg ons sommer nog n rewolusie (sesde) by en staak alle belastings.

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  10. Anonymous8:42 am

    Mike what do you make of this eff march? I am not one for sieners perdictions or what not. But he did say a sea of blood will sweep through the streets of jhb. Vaalpens

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    1. Anonymous10:17 am

      Boere_Ninja

      He predicted the EFF.

      He said a black nationalistic movement would rise, the ANC were a liberation movement. He mentioned it will cause a vote among the whites, not sure what though.

      http://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/malema-sends-warning-to-whites-1.1936737#.Vi-u8tLhC00

      Malema is warning whites.

      Ey I dont know what is going to happen in this place. You have this idiot, you have the ANC and then you have whites sticking their heads up their asses pretending everything is fine.

      Whites need to work together now.

      This Malema guy is fucking dangerous, I said so years ago to the laughs of friends, family and outsiders.

      He is dangerous, more dangerous than any black leader we have had in this country. He has a speaker, a loud mouth, he speaks for the masses and is not scared what to say.

      When he speaks about farmers, we see a spike in murders.
      Watch now, we will see a spike in white murders in JHB now after this march.

      As surly as the sun rises, you will see crime, murder against whites in the JHB area now after this speech, I have seen it happen time and time when he mentioned farmers.

      I dont know, this EFF is a huge problem for whites way more than they realize.

      Why he has not been tried for hate speech is another question.

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    2. Anonymous11:24 am

      Boere_Ninja, one thing is for certain BIG shit is heading our way. Hope for the best, but start expecting the worst. Vaalpens

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    3. Ninja- Here is this kaffir Malema, if this isn't obvious then those weakling whites deserve to perish. If you don't have the balls to face what is coming, then you deserve for the kaffirs to cut them off of you. Again, we don't have a kaffir problem when compared to the white problem we have. Pansy moffies our ancestors would be ashamed of!

      Let these kaffirs sift the weak from the strong and we will rebuild with the best of our race! Again, not to hijack Mikes POLITICAL BLOG, this is nothing less than divine judgement, getting rid of the weak, yet the repentant righteous, after going through the storm like Noah and his family will be the better for it.

      The final sifting out process is almost complete, the weak degenerates (chaff) who believe their leftist bullshit like equality of races, moffie marriage and other abstract and false egalitarian ideals will be burned like the chaff they are. The kaffirs (flood) are about to be unleashed and we repentant believers will take shelter in our ark (laager) and ride this storm out.

      Keep faith men and women, always remember that one sleep down means one sleep closer to our independence, our own homeland, our inheritance. We have gone through the proverbial 'baptism of fire' What is about to happen is set, sealed and about to unfold.

      Be joyful that we are going to get rid of the lefist traitors amongst our race, be glad we are about to receive our inheritance and be glad that you know what is coming, for only those loved are given the opportunity to prepare.

      Be as Jonah on the ship when the waters were raging because he Knew:

      Then the mariners were afraid, and each cried out to his god. And they hurled the cargo that was in the ship into the sea to lighten it for them. But Jonah had gone down into the inner part of the ship and had lain down and was fast asleep. Jonah 1:15

      Here is the you tube vid of this baboon:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TY5c8CvTHU

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    4. Anonymous1:36 pm

      Malema is simply controlled opposition, put in place by the psychos that have been behind the demise of South Africa. Follow the money! With chaos in South Africa the Rand collapses and South Africa is being fleeced of it resources at basement prices. The psychos running the show do not care about anybody, Black or White. Collateral damage is the least of their worries.

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    5. Anonymous3:02 pm

      I don't suppose Malema had anything to say about this?
      http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=949_1445918798

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    6. Anonymous4:42 pm

      Yes at least with Zuma we knew what he was all about and what we could expect from him but this Malema snake (black mamba) is a very devious character indeed and lower than shark shit. Whites can expect nothing but the worst from him. He is a cunning bastard and is hell bent on ruling the world. He has openly declared that blacks will rule it in the near future and there is no doubt about the fact that he intends to be their leader. He is probably full of the “ganja weed” and alcohol as usual or he and his blacks have got a mighty powerful secret weapon.

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  11. Mike I've followed your blog for a long time and I've seen something new. It seems to me you have come to the attention of a department in the NSA or similar, how else can u explain all the recent personal attacks? I hope u covered your tracks well. Cos as u know this isn't going to be no peaceful revolution.

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  12. Anonymous11:29 am

    so why were you not saying the same thing when Statues were falling?

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  13. In my humble opinion the centres of the moderates and the radicals have now been identified. The centrifugal forces will pull their respective constituencies into orbit around these two centres and they will start operating together against the communal enemy (the ANC). As soon as they accomplish the goal of felling the ANC the radicals will - as always - slaughter the moderates. Your assessment is very accurate Mr Smith and I hope to see you in the trenches some day...

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  14. Re anon 4:40am. Please Mike, do not waste your time on Piet Retief's descendants and other brain-dead libturds. Keep your eye on the ball, and your scope on the horizon. We need not numbers...we are Boer.

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  15. Anonymous3:58 pm

    In a country where the average IQ is higher than 67 I would agree with you 100%, Mike. But we don't live in such a country. We live in a country with a vulnerable minority ripe for a genocide. As much as we all hate the ANC, ejecting them by means of revolution is an extremely dangerous strategy because we will most definitely not end up with a moderate government. In all likelihood a maniac like Malema will step into the power vacuum and what will ensue will put the holocaust to shame. And yes, this catharsis may one day in the far future lead to a better country, but what good is it if we're all dead or living in a refugee camp?

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  16. http://www.rense.com/general24/message.htm

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  17. Anonymous10:54 pm

    LOL, you guys have no clue about what a real people's revolution looks like. Trust me, a few thousand EFF or students going crazy is just rabble. A real government changing event would be when literally millions take to the streets and we have had nothing like that at all yet.

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    1. Anonymous12:05 am

      The key word being 'yet'. It is coming, soon.

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    2. Agreed, Anon 12:05, soon.

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  18. Anonymous4:12 am

    It's not about warfare, it's about welfare.

    http://www.politicsweb.co.za/news-and-analysis/slip-sliding-away?utm_source=Politicsweb+Daily+Headlines&utm_campaign=9f3bef34f7-DHN_27_Oct_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_a86f25db99-9f3bef34f7-130043549

    The welfare function

    Intrigued by this and by the frequency of student unrest, you had read more and come across Charles van Onselen's seminal article, showing that student unrest in South Africa must be understood quite differently from the way it is understood elsewhere.

    Student unrest, he argues, is not really about education but is “an insistent plea for the alleviation of acute rural (and urban) poverty and distress via a youth cohort which is acutely aware of its responsibilities to the extended family”.

    What Van Onselen shows is that tertiary education institutions have become welfare institutions for this youth cohort, providing accommodation, food, transport and general living expenses.

    Even by the mid-1990s it was very common for such students to be funnelling money back to their (often fatherless) families. Thus in effect, this youth cohort are young migrants to the city, acquiring bursaries and student loans which then help feed revenue streams back to their destitute families.

    Hence the desperation over the issue of “exclusion”: if the student either fails his exams or fails to pay his fees, he may be excluded by the university. This not only means an end to his hopes of upward social mobility but also cuts off his source of food and accommodation in the city and his ability to transmit revenue back home. Anyone would fight for that.

    This might, you realise, help explain something rather odd. Normally on university campuses it is very difficult to whip up much in the way of student activism on the eve of crucial exams – everyone is too frantically focused on revision. Yet the current wave of protest erupted in late October, just on the eve of exams.

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